Friedhofskreuz im Gegenlicht

I have another important question about Corona, so I’m interviewing the Spirits again today. Since the Spirits don’t seem to be as worried about the virus as we are, I confront them with the question:

There are more deaths than normal, so the virus is more deadly and dangerous than others, isn`t it?

Spirit: Yes, there are more deaths. Still, the virus is not an end-time killer virus. You have to calculate differently. If you compare the number of deaths this year with other years, it is higher. As long as Corona is there, the deaths will be higher. But you have to factor in the years after that as well. Fewer people will die. Right now they’re all dying suddenly and all at once. Without the virus, they would have been more delayed deaths over the next few years. So you have to observe and compare the death statistics over four or five years, depending on how long the coronavirus is active.

Me: So it’s dying in fast motion now and afterwards the clocks will run all the slower? So you would have to compare the average death rate of 2014-2018 with the average death rate of 2019-2023. Or perhaps even better in ten-year periods. That’s what you do with the weather. The average temperature in Germany in 2019 was 10.2 degrees Celsius. If I pick out just one day, for example in summer, and then find that there are 20.4 degrees, I might as well panic and say: that’s a doubling of the temperature! That is not the way a climate researcher works. But that’s the way the media sometimes argue: “There were twice as many deaths on day X as last year.” It is not even said whether one refers to the average number of the year or to exactly the same date or only to the winter months.

Spirit: You can also compare it to the stock market. The prices fall for a while, but then they rise again and in total it usually balances out or you even make a profit. The virus is not an apocalyptic “stock market crash” which, seen over a longer period of time, completely changes the population or wipes out humanity.

Me: Interesting approach, I will observe this. But of course this is something long-term, which cannot be determined at this point. Maybe in five years we will see all this more calmly.

I thank him and say goodbye.

Translated with (free version)

Are there really more deaths from Corona?

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